Neil Bawa's 20+ years of multifamily investing taught him one thing: The best time to buy is when everyone else is scared—but only if you follow the data, not the headlines.
But here’s the twist: 2026 is one year closer to stabilization than 2025 was.
Logically, you should pay more for a property that’s closer to recovery—but you’re paying less because current rents are depressed.
“I think a year ago I said this is the lowest price, and I was wrong. I didn’t anticipate negative rent growth in 2025. But today, the price you’re paying per unit in growth markets is actually lower than a year ago, and this is as close to the bottom as I think it gets.”
Why real estate:
Elon Musk says “we won’t need money anymore” in an AI-driven abundance economy.
Neil’s response? Maybe someday—but until then, people will always need shelter, and the math of supply/demand still works.
The investors who understand that math (and act on it) will build generational wealth, while others sit frozen in analysis paralysis.
His 2026 thesis is clear:
Multifamily prices are down 20-30% from peak (lowest we’ll see)
Negative rent growth in 2025 artificially suppressed valuations (buying opportunity)
Supply waves end H2 2026 for most markets (recovery imminent)
Markets with the biggest permit drops (San Antonio -90%) will see the biggest rent spikes
If you’re still not convinced, listen to this episode to find out how to:
track permit reductions (use free AI tools to research 10 markets)
rank by fundamentals (population growth + job diversity + affordability)
target overlooked markets (Northwest Arkansas, San Antonio, others below the radar)
buy today at depressed prices (because current rents don’t reflect future supply shortage)
hold for NOI spike (when concessions disappear in 12-18 months)
I hope this interview gives you actionable steps towards data-driven investing.
Be well & Stay safe,
Axel
Quick links to…
Prefer YouTube? Watch the episode here | Subscribe
Takeaways + Action Steps
Apply the “Data-First” Framework to Find Hidden Gem Markets
Neil has lived through multiple cycles, and each cycle has a different “key factor” for picking winners.
Analyze which markets fell the most from 2005 to 2009? (Based on the 2009 cycle, post-financial crisis)
Markets that crashed hardest (Phoenix, Las Vegas, Florida) rebounded fastest and produced the highest returns—as long as they had decent fundamentals.
Why? Prices overshot on the downside due to panic, creating asymmetric upside for buyers who understood the fundamentals hadn’t changed (people still needed housing).
Analyze which markets have the greatest permit reduction as a percentage? (Based on the 2026 cycle, post-supply crisis)
Markets that panicked and stopped building (San Antonio -90%, others -50-70%) will see the biggest rent growth when supply dries up—as long as population and jobs remain strong.
Neil’s framework for evaluating any market:
Permit reduction (biggest weight—who stopped building?)
Population trends (are people moving in or out?)
Job diversity (single-industry towns are risky; diverse economies are resilient)
Affordability levels (what % of income goes to rent? Is there room to grow?)
Current concessions (how much “hidden” rent growth exists when concessions disappear?)
How to apply this yourself (step-by-step):
Step 1: Make a list of 10 markets
Markets that you’re curious about (mix of well-known and overlooked).
Step 2: Use AI tools to research each market:
“What is the percentage change in multifamily permits from 2022 to 2025 in [city]?”
“What is the population growth rate in [city] from 2020 to 2025?”
“What are the top 5 industries in [city] and their job growth rates?”
Step 3: Narrow to 3-5 markets with:
50%+ permit reduction
Positive population growth (even if modest)
Diverse job base (not reliant on one company/industry)
Step 4: Deep dive into those 3-5 markets:
What are current concessions levels? (The higher, the more hidden upside)
When does the supply wave actually end? (Q3 2026? Q1 2027?)
Are there smaller properties available (5-50 units) for easier entry?
Step 5: Connect, connect, connect
Connect with local operators, syndicators, or property managers in those markets to validate your research and find deals.
Neil’s additional insight on single-family vs. multifamily
The permit data strategy works for all rental housing types. If a market stopped building multifamily, it likely also slowed single-family rental construction. So whether you invest in:
Large multifamily (100+ units)
Small multifamily (5-50 units)
Single-family rentals
...the same market fundamentals apply. A metro with a 90% permit drop will benefit all rental housing when supply dries up.
Action step you can apply
Create a simple spreadsheet with columns: Market Name | Permit Change % | Population Growth % | Top Industries | Current Concessions.
Fill it out for 10 markets using free AI research tools.
Rank them.
Your top 3 are your target markets for the next 12-24 months.
The Bottom Line
The choice is yours: Keep saying “I wish I had” five years from now, or start building your portfolio today… one property at a time.
Prefer YouTube? Listen to the full episode. Stop waiting for the “perfect time.” The data says it’s now—if you know where to look.
The data proves it. The question is: Will you act on it?
With technological advancements, you don’t have to order DVDs ( yes, I am that old) and attend many seminars just to get familiar with the process of real estate investing. You can now have an online mentor :)
Bonus Action Item: You can start learning my strategy by simply subscribing to our newsletter
Or you can call me directly.
PS: list down your questions before our call (better yet, note them on the form) so we can have a value-added strategy call when we meet - see you!
Give me just a minute…
… and thank you for being part of our mission to educate investors towards the Age of Abundance. Join our newsletter for free, and you will get investing insights we sourced directly to your inbox.
You can join The IdealWealthGrower™ membership for only $8/month or $80/year (17% cheaper)! Here is what you will get:
The Ideal Wealth Grower (Book)
$9.99→ Your guide to building lasting wealth
Mindset Manual
$12.00→ Practical tools to strengthen your investing mindset.Protection Course
$29.99→ Safeguard and de-risk your real estate investments.AMA
$150 per strategy session→ Direct answers to your toughest real estate questions.BONUS: Step-by-Step Strategy Blogs → My full residential investing system, broken down.
Bonus: $10K/Month Passive Income Strategy → Proven steps to build consistent cash flow.
ALL THESE FOR JUST $8/MONTH 😉 You can start building your investment portfolio and so much more!
